Three Major Forex Pairs That Look Bullish This Week

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мертвая петля или как написать робота на Visual Jforex

  1. Почему – Итак это последний месяц конкурса, и все ринулись писать статьи. К сожалению компания решила прикрыть много кункурсов, согласен. Мы не оправдали их надежд. В Бинарах все лупят нахаляву, порой у победителей смотришь стайтмент а там. -1000% профита ))) а то и более, просто человек на удачу изо дня в день, пытался разогнать свой счет. то есть даблил-удваивал удачу. Если посмотреть то всего для победы нужна серия из 6 побед 1-2-4-8-12-16. Я все мечтал победить но увы. Теперь на реальные деньги страшнее. Конкурс статей в массе писатей пишут ни о чем. Технический анализ просто нужна удача и по возможности максимальное количество прогнозов. Тоже лотерея.

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amazing article , it contains a useful information

Робот не законченный, а где трейлинг-стоп ? А так работа в безубыток ?!

What Success Looks like?

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Market profile prep for Forex majors

This is a sister thread to the London session market profile prep.
Please refer to that thread for a description of the methodology.
Here in this thread, we look at several major Forex pairs.

The major differences between profiles of the Forex instruments and those of the equity indices are the nature of the auctions.
The equity indices are strongly driven by the sentiment, i.e. risk on risk off. That is why everyday is pretty much a new auction. Hence, daily profiles are very effective. The weekly profile can also be consulted for guidance. However, the monthly and yearly profile are much less useful for indices.

On the other hand, the auction of the Forex are driven by the macro factors such as the interest differentials, central bank flows and so on, the auction there is much stickier in nature. Hence the weekly, monthly and yearly profile are quite useful, while the daily profile levels are not often respected.
See in this example where Gold has repeatedly find support at the level 1313.8. Why? It is the Value area high of last year’s profile. That is the location where the big moneys are step in initiating trades.

In the second example, the Aussie got a strong rejection at 0.7914, which is the Value area high of the Feb monthly TPO. The responsive seller stepped in driving Aussie lower.

  • Post # 2
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  • Apr 1, 2020 5:00pm Apr 1, 2020 5:00pm
  • Post # 3
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  • Apr 2, 2020 8:57am Apr 2, 2020 8:57am

Zooming from monthly to weekly perspective.
The first three weeks of March had successive lower value areas. This is bearish on the one hand. On the other hand, it can be interpreted as building energy to break to the high. The break occurred after the FOMC meeting. But it got rejected at the Feb Monthly value high (see previous post).

It seems that we are getting some responsive buy from the March monthly value low. But i would expect the bounce to be stalled after filling the TPO hole in last week’s TPO profile.
If the price keeps on breaking higher, I would expect the value area high of last monthly TPO, at 1.2482 (note that this is futures price), would be defended by the bears.

The Most and Least Volatile Currency Pairs in 2020

You are probably familiar with the concept of “volatility”. If not, we recommend you to get more information on the subject before reading this article.

Here we will talk about the most volatile currency pairs in the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market in 2020.

We should note that by definition, volatility tends to change over time and is not a constant.

Volatility Is Relative

If you have ever traded in the Forex market or at least watched price movements from the sidelines, you might have noticed that the prices move non-linearly on the chart.

There are times when the currency price stands still or moves within a very narrow range. In this case, we talk about the low volatility in the market.

On the other hand, when key economic data are published or officials make a speech, the market price makes sharp and strong movements. So, here we can see an increase or even a spike of volatility.

To illustrate the non-constant nature of volatility let’s take a look at the Forex Volatility Calculator –http://investing.com/tools/forex-volatility-calculator.

All you need to do before you start using the tool is to enter the period in weeks, over which you want to measure the volatility.

Let’s take NZD/USD (New Zealand vs. US dollar) as an example. On the website, mentioned above, we select the four weeks to calculate the volatility. The results are displayed in three diagrams:

These diagrams show the average daily volatility of the NZD/USD pair since July 1. They also show an average weekly, daily and hourly volatility of the pair.

Based on all three diagrams we can conclude that volatility tends to change during any period.

The hourly volatility diagram for NZD/USD, which peaks at 12 and 21 o’clock (GMT), is of particular interest. It fully coincides with the time of economic data releases for the USA and New Zealand. It also confirms the thesis on volatility increase upon major economic data releases mentioned at the beginning.

Volatility changes can be observed for all currency pairs. You can select any pair and see the statistics over different periods.

What Does Volatility Depend On?

What does the volatility of any currency pair depend on?

The main reason for the volatility is liquidity. A classic rule states that: the higher the liquidity is, the lower is the volatility, and vice versa.

Liquidity is the amount of supply and demand in the market. It means that the larger the supply and demand are, the harder it is to get the price moving.

According to that rule, we can conclude that exotic currency pairs are the most volatile ones in the Forex market because their liquidity is often lower than that of major pairs.

Volatility often occurs during major economic data releases as well, so it may be useful to download and install MT4 news indicator:

It can help to protect yourself against the unexpected market activity.

Let’s use statistics to verify the previous statements.

Table of The Most Volatile Currency Pairs

For our study let’s take seven major, cross, and exotic currency pairs, and draw up a comparative table based on the obtained data:

The Most Volatile Currency Pairs Table (data from 01-06-20)

The table shows that today the most volatile Forex pairs are exotic ones. Namely, USD/SEK, USD/TRY, and USD/BRL. All of them move on average for more than 400 points per day.

The volatility of the major currency pairs is much lower. Only GBP/USD moves for more than 100 points per day. AUD/USD turned out to be the least volatile currency pair.

As for the cross rates, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, and GBP/JPY are the pairs with the highest volatility. All of them move on average for more than 100 points per day.

CAD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF and CHF/JPY are the less volatility Forex pairs among the cross rates. The amplitude of their movements doesn’t exceed 60 points per day.

Resume

Based on these statements, the reader may conclude that trading the exotic currency pairs or cross rates promises large profits. However, it isn’t quite that simple.

Indeed, the range of exotic pairs’ movements is much broader than that of the major ones. However, such high volatility is a result of low liquidity, and trading the low liquidity currency pairs carries particular risks for a trader.

The fact is that various methods of technical analysis might not work in such situations. That is, if you decide to trade, say, USD/SEK or GBP/NZD, your analysis may not work as effectively as, for example when trading EUR/USD. Also, technical analysis patterns might generate false signals.

This is because the psychology of the market behavior in its most liquid form makes up the backbone of technical analysis. If the liquidity of a trading instrument is lower, the validity of technical analysis comes under question.

The second problem a trader can face when trading the volatile financial instruments is a wide spread (additional trading expenses).

Of course, we won’t discourage you to trade the low liquidity currency pairs. However, our task is to warn inexperienced traders and newbies that the risk of such trading is higher than that of trading the classic currency pairs.

Trading Volatile Currency Pairs (Podcast Episode 14)

September 23, 2020 by VP

Even after Episode 4 of the Forex Q&A Podcast, there are still apparently a lot of people who are hesitant when it comes to trading volatile currency pairs.

Is there anything to be afraid of here?

Not if you look at it intelligently.

Episode 14’s question comes from JD

“I see you trade 27 different currency pairs. How are you not at a disadvantage with the higher spreads and faster movement of the more volatile pairs?”

JD from Durango, CO

If you don’t know why I trade so many currency pairs, it would help to watch/listen to Episode 4 first.

Some of you may know the answer to JD’s question, but we need to do some digging here because I don’t think a lot of you are trading that many currency pairs, and thus not giving yourself the best chance to win.

We need to ease some fears here.

What Are The Most Volatile Currencies Right Now?

So I did some legwork this week.

On Thursday, I was awake for the London session, so I went to every currency pair I trade, and took the current spreads from Oanda.

Then I logged back on again at my normal trading time of 1:40pm and took ATR readings of each pair on the Daily Chart.

We’ll use this info a few different ways. First, would you like to know what the top 4 most volatile currency pairs are right now as I write this?

The correct answer is “OMG Yes!!”

GBP/AUD = 171 ATR

GBP/NZD = 158 ATR

GBP/CAD = 144 ATR

GBP/JPY = 142 ATR

British Pound? Killin it.

I make a strong case for currency pairs which include the GBP in this blog post where I talk about my absolute two favorite pairs to trade. Hint: The GBP is in both of them.

And the 4 above pairs are no exception. What’s not to like?

  • The pound moves! Trend traders like us love pairs that move and don’t stagnate.
  • Big Banks don’t give two shits about these pairs, meaning we don’t have to worry about staying off their radar!
  • Each of the quote currencies have easy-to-spot news events that we can easily avoid if we choose.

On that middle point, you may be asking yourself (or me) “Why don’t the Big Banks care about these pairs?”

Because like so many of you ding-dongs, nobody’s trading them!

If there’s no money there compared to the other pairs, it’s not worth their time.

If you could, without consequence, would you rather rob a mansion or a mud hut?

There are just way too many positives here to ignore.

Common (And Dumb) Fears

Let’s tackle the fear of bigger spreads.

Sometimes these more volatile pairs have higher spreads, in fact they often will have higher spreads than the more popular pairs have.

This is a deterrent? Why?

You’re looking at things completely wrong.

If a spread is high, but the ATR of that pair is high too, you will get that spread covered mighty quickly.

You will get that spread covered just as quickly as you would trading the EUR/USD at a 1 pip spread.

Look at it this way.

I’ll take the spreads I recorded earlier and divide them by the currency pair’s ATR for the day. This way, you can see, as a percentage of the whole day’s movement, none of this really matters.

Currency Pair Spread at 2am PST Daily ATR on 9/20/18 Spread’s % of ATR
EUR/USD 1.3 83 1.6%
GBP/USD 2 116 1.7%
USD/JPY 1.2 64 1.9%
AUD/USD 1.2 57 2.1%
USD/CAD 2 80 2.5%
NZD/USD 1.7 56 3%
EUR/JPY 1.9 112 1.7%
EUR/GBP 1.4 56 2.5%
GBP/JPY 3 142 2.1%
EUR/AUD 2.3 110 2.1%
EUR/NZD 3.8 96 4%
AUD/JPY 1.6 81 2%
NZD/JPY 2.1 67 3.1%
AUD/NZD 3 63 4.8%
GBP/CAD 3.4 144 2.3%
USD/CHF 1.7 59 2.9%
AUD/CAD 2.4 70 3.4%
NZD/CAD 2.8 65 4.3%
CAD/JPY 1.9 70 2.7%
GBP/AUD 4 171 2.3%
GBP/NZD 5 158 3.2%
EUR/CAD 2.3 108 2.1%
GBP/CHF 3.1 97 3.2%
AUD/CHF 2.8 59 4.7%
NZD/CHF 3 47 6.3%
CAD/CHF 2.5 51 4.9%
CHF/JPY 3.7 86 4.3%

The percentages are what you want to pay close attention to.

You can have any of those spreads covered in no time.

Contrast this with people who trade the 5m chart. I checked the ATR on the GBP/NZD 5m chart. The spread was 5, the ATR was 14. That’s 35.7%!!

At that point, you may have an argument.

“But I’m just being smart by trading pairs with low spreads. It adds up over time”.

No, stupid, you’re missing out on major gains by passing on the more volatile currency pairs, and you’re doing it on purpose.

The NZD/CHF had the worst percentage on the board. Should you still trade it? Absolutely!

I looked back at my trading log for 2020. I traded the NZD/CHF 5 times, and netted 148 pips for the year.

If I would have passed on it, I would have saved about 15 pips of spread. WooHoo!!

The next worst percentages were the CAD/CHF, and then the AUD/NZD, which is another one of my favorite pairs to trade. God knows where I’d be without the Aussie/Kiwi.

These spread fears are way overblown. Never worry about them again. The numbers prove you’ll never need to.

But Volatile Currency Pairs Move So Fast!!

Is the speed at which these pairs move really a concern here?

Actual photo of you

Because it makes zero sense to think this way.

A percentage is a percentage, you know that right?

Thanks to the Risk profile I gave you, you’ll never have to worry about a currency pair’s volatility ever again.

If you’re trading the NZD/CHF, which is the least volatile pair on the board…

Or the GBP/AUD, which is the most volatile pair on the board…

If you lose badly, and price hits your stop loss on either one…

You lose the exact same amount of money!!

Percentages are percentages. Please know how they work. I can’t talk to people who are wildly confused by this phenomenon.

Conclusion

You’re missing out on a lot of profit by shutting out the other combinations of the 8 major currencies.

And you have no good reason not to do this. Unless you’re a consistently losing trader, and in that case you should be on demo, not excluding currency pairs.

Trade them! Trade them all! Hell, add the EUR/CHF to the mix too, I’m probably going to soon.

You’re letting the word “Volatile” spook you.

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